Vache Gabrielyan and Hayk Kamalyan interviewed by CivilNet

CBRD Builds Quarterly Consumer Confidence Index 2022

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YEREVAN, Armenia — The American University of Armenia (AUA) Paul Avedisian Center for Business Research and Development (CBRD) has surveyed a nationally representative cohort of consumers in Armenia to create a dynamic quarterly Consumer Confidence Index. 

The Consumer Confidence Survey reflects consumers’ views on the current and future economic situation and likely developments in the next quarter. The indicators derived from the survey responses are based on the consumers’ subjective assessments and their current and future purchasing behavior. The survey of the Consumer Confidence Index was conducted with a sample of 2,000 citizens consistent with the male-female ratio of the population.

After the initial nine-month pilot testing of the sample design, the CBRD has begun surveying a nationally representative panel of consumers in Armenia to create a dynamic quarterly Consumer Confidence Index. The Consumer Confidence Survey uses an internationally accepted approach of combining two sub-balances: Present Situation Balance (based on households’ assessment of their current financial situation, purchasing behavior, and the country’s current economic conditions) and Future Expectations Balance (based on consumers’ short-term outlook for their future financial position, buying intentions, and labor market conditions). Changes in subsequent quarterly scores are then reported as the Consumer Confidence Index. CBRD took the Consumer Confidence Balance in the fourth quarter of 2021 as the base value. 

In an interview with CivilNet, CBE Dean Dr. Vache Gabrielyan and Assistant Professor Dr. Hayk Kamalyan highlighted that the CBRD cohort survey will help businesses and the government plan more precisely what to do based on consumers’  purchasing mood. 

Dr. Kamalyan emphasized, “The AUA Consumer Confidence Index provides an early signal about the strength of the Armenian economy. Thus, it can be used by both the private and public sectors in planning business activities and economic policies.”

Founded in 1991, the American University of Armenia (AUA) is a private, independent university located in Yerevan, Armenia, affiliated with the University of California, and accredited by the WASC Senior College and University Commission in the United States. AUA provides local and international students with Western-style education through top-quality undergraduate, graduate, and certificate programs, promotes research and innovation, encourages civic engagement and community service, and fosters democratic values.