PSIA Seminar: Winning by Losing: Revolution, War, and Development

While the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 is seen as a lose-lose-lose (Georgia-Russia-World) event in history, we claim that Georgia gained economically while losing territorially. By constructing a historical counterfactual (synthetic control) for Georgia, we show that over half of the effect that usually is attributed to the Rose Revolution actually is a result of the 2008 War. We attribute this to the improved credibility and popular support of the government as well as extra media coverage in the times of Great Recession that produced foreign investment and aid.

The research has been conducted together with Dr. Gayane Barseghyan, Assistant Professor at AUA

Dr. Gurgen Aslanyan is a Teaching Fellow at CERGE-EI Prague, a Researcher at the Ural Federal University, and an Adjunct Lecturer at the American University of Armenia. He is a Development Economist with a focus on policy evaluation. Over the years, Dr. Aslanyan has consulted private and public sector, such as the Central Bank of Armenia, has been invited for conducting seminars or teaching to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, Georgia, Russia, the UK, and the US. He holds dual doctorate degree from the Charles University in Prague and the University of the State of New York. Dr. Aslanyan has presented his research and published internationally and currently is elected to serve as the President of the Armenian Economic Association.