PSIA Seminar: Armenia’s “Stateness Issue” and Its Post-War Democratization

Armenia’s post-war democratization appears stagnated and recently has attained some elements of authoritarian consolidation. Despite significant opposition challenges, incumbent regimes have endured. Various explanations have been offered to explain this phenomenon, such as the ability of the regime to use its coercive apparatus to suppress the opposition, the inability of external dimensions to encourage democratization, and the patrimonial nature of the regime. Some authors have also argued that the regime has instrumentalised the protracted conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh in order to remain in power. However, to date there has not been comprehensive inquiry employed in order to understand the complex relationship between protracted conflict and the regime’s endurance. The paper aims to fill this theoretical lacuna by introducing a novel concept — “elite protection pact” (the concept of “protection pact” is borrowed from Dan Slater), and argues that Armenia’s regime endurance can be better explained through understanding how the presidents were able to enforce unity among strategic elites in the face of popular mobilization. The thesis argues the experience and ‘legitimacy’ of association with the early Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been expressed in the formation and continuation of an “elite protection pact”, which enabled and formed a consolidated authoritarian rule to deflect pressures for change both from opposition groups and from popular movements.

About the speaker:

Sos Avetisyan holds MPhil degree in Russian and East European Studies from St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford. He was awarded with Luys scholarship for years 2014-2016 as well as Harry Shuckman Scholarship for Eurasian Studies from St. Antony’s College 2015-2016 and Armenian Studies Scholarship from Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. He is also a graduate of Regional Master Programme in Human Rights and Democratization in 2013 from Yerevan State University. His research interests include Post-Communist Transitions, Comparative Democratization, Ethnic Conflicts, Diaspora Politics.

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